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NBA Finals Preview: Scouting Report

On the eve of the return of our beloved Miami Heat to the NBA Finals, let us take a look at the rotation players of the Dallas Mavericks and determine areas of strength that they may or may not have against us. Is there an answer to the Dirk Nowitzki puzzle? Is their bench really that much better than ours? Who on their team is a wildcard? Follow the jump for a full preview of the weapons at Coach Rick Carlisle's disposal.

Star-divide

Dirk Nowitzki

This guy is ridiculous and virtually impossible to guard. His performance in these Playoffs has solidified his standing as an all-time great. While I would not quite put him up there with Coach Carlisle's lofty Top 10 all-time projection, I am comfortable saying that if the Top 50 Greatest NBA Players of All-Time list were to be revised, Dirk gets my vote to be on that list (probably in my Top 30, for the record). Now, enough kissing up to the opposition. Nowitzki is going to get his. There is just no stopping that. We can throw Chris Bosh, Udonis Haslem, LeBron James, Mike Miller, and James Jones at him in waves, but the guy is pretty much unstoppable (Didn't I say I was done kissing up? Sorry, the guy is just good. Hopefully, the opposition is giving due credit to our unstoppable star player as well). The only way to stop Dirk is if he stops himself, which he does not do nearly as much as he did earlier in his career. That said, the Miami Heat must be satisfied with making life difficult for Nowitzki and living with the results. Another key is not to send him to the foul line for free points and and-ones. Look for No. 6 to guard Dirk late in games. Hey may not ultimately be as successful as he was in shutting down Derrick Rose, but he can certainly give the Mavs' star player a different-and hopefully bothersome-look.

Jason Terry/Peja Stojakovic

These two guys come off the bench, but they are arguably the second most important weapons in Carlisle's offensive attack. They force teams to stay honest and not double onto Nowitzki defensively-or pay the price if they elect to do so. Peja's minutes went down in the Oklahoma City series--likely due to match ups--but look for him to log huge minutes off the bench in the Finals. Jason Terry plays a similar role, but he is much more active. He is also very hungry. He and Nowitzki are the only holdovers from the 2006 Finals team (By the way, Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem are the only holdovers on our side. Strange symmetry, huh?). Because Dirk is going to get his regardless of how he is guarded, Stojakovic and Terry cannot get loose. For more on how potentially damaging this could be to the title hopes of our Heat, see the Mavs' sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers.

Jason Kidd

Jason Kidd in nowhere near the force he was in his prime or during his previous back-to-back trips to the NBA Finals in 2002 and 2003. He is, however, a very effective floor leader. He has also made himself into somewhat of a three-point sharpshooter. Only Ray Allen and Reggie Miller, respectively, have made more treys in their careers. Look for him to make timely three-point shots if left open. Watch for that pump fake in an attempt to draw fouls as well.  His greatest contribution to this series may be on the defensive end-especially as a help defender.

Tyson Chandler

Speaking of defense, this guy brings his hardhat to work every single game. To help Heat fans form an appreciation of Chandler, think of what Joel Anthony might be like if he were about four inches taller. He would be most helpful to the Mavericks in the Finals (and hopefully this idea does not occur to Coach Carlisle) if they assign him to Chris Bosh. Even if Chandler plays off Bosh, look for him to help defend and rebound like crazy.

Shawn Marion/Jose Juan Barea

I have these two together because they are--in my opinion--the true wildcards the Dallas Mavericks possess. Marion is a hustle guy who rarely has plays run for him, but he finds ways to put the ball in the hole, he rebounds, and he defends his butt off on the perimeter. He is on a bit of a hot streak. The Matrix has scored 18 or more points in two of the Mavs' last three wins. J.J. Barea is perhaps the guy who worries me the most. He is the one perimeter player the Mavericks have who looks to get to the basket. He is not looking to make plays for others. He is looking to get in the lane and score. Look for the more athletic Mario Chalmers to be a counter-substitution anytime Barea checks into a game.

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I don't care

what Dallas can bring on the table, as long as Miami stays consistent in what they have been doing in their previous postseason games: make the opposition work very hard against the Heat. There’s no denying the fact that Dirk can score 30 or 40 points against Miami, but it is the manner how he gets it against the Heat’s defense. Same goes to Dirk’s teammates, but the question against them would be: how consistent can they deliver for Dallas? Sure enough, Terry/Peja/Barea/Kidd can score 20 points, but on a nightly basis? I don’t think so.

I don’t give a [expletive] about Chandler on Bosh because Chris is a more creative offensive player who can hit from the outside. As a matter of fact, I see this as a matchup that should free up Miami’s lanes, especially down the stretch. If Bosh is playing alongside UD, Wade, Miller, and James at the same time, it would pose problems against Dallas’ defense because of Miami’s versatility. James can play the 2-guard, Miller can be a spot-up shooter on the wings and crash the offensive boards, and UD is a force in the paint. They can also play defense. I highly doubt if the combination of Terry, Dirk and Peja can work against that lineup. Needless to say, I have to give it to Miami in six games.

by Tenki D'Addario on May 31, 2011 7:33 AM EDT reply actions  

I'll agree with Miami in 6

That’s my official pick. I also hope you’re right about everything else. Good point about Bosh roaming the perimeter to pull Chandler out of the lane to open up room for Wade, James, and even Chalmers to operate. My point with the Mavs’ perimeter shooters is to stay at home with them so that they won’t score 20 on any night. Make no mistake. I am not afraid of the Mavericks, but I do think they are a formidable opponent. Just wanted to put some things out there for discussion.

"I run my unit how I run my unit." --Col Nathan R Jessep, A Few Good Men

by sherman r on May 31, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

And this is

the way it turned out in Game 1! Can I get a job here?

by Tenki D'Addario on May 31, 2011 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

i we should go with bosh on dirk

and joel on chandler. since, IMO, Joel is a tad bit better in help defense. i just hope the whoever guards dirk remembers to put a hand in the face all the time. going for the ball will be pointless.

by royxzkiexx on May 31, 2011 10:40 AM EDT reply actions  

Good post...

I agree JJ and Marion are the wildcards because of their ability to get in the lane—Marion can post up some also; Dirk is going to get his but as y’all have said get a hand in his face at least and don’t double him all the time and let those good shooters with open 3’s like the Magic game earlier in the season—what a nightmare that was as the Heat kept doubling Howard and leaving guys wide open.

On offense, attack the rim/get to the line and if they switch to zone, knock down those open 3’s.

Martin Landau as Bela Lugosi: "How dare that asshole bring up Karloff? You think it takes talent to do Frankenstein? It's all makeup and grunting."

"The women... The women prefer the traditional monsters."
--from the movie Ed Wood
GET TO THE RIM HEAT! ATTACK THE PAINT!

by mjtig on May 31, 2011 1:17 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

The series is won on the defensive end.

Contesting their shots will lead to transition baskets. Dallas is old and not fast enough to keep up.

Hollywood as Hell

by Jeterian 2 on May 31, 2011 3:09 PM EDT reply actions  

Heat win games 1 & 2, mavs take game 3, heat steal game 4, mavs win game 5 barely & the heat close them out & make them cry like bitches.
Heat in 6.
Let’s go heat!

.Heat Tri-nasty is inevitable!

by thedeeofdees on May 31, 2011 5:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Udonis Haslem

clearly bothered Nowitzki and turned him into a volume shooter. If that becomes a trend, watch out!

"I run my unit how I run my unit." --Col Nathan R Jessep, A Few Good Men and Miami Heat Head Coach Erik Spoelstra's unofficial mantra.

by sherman r on Jun 1, 2011 12:07 AM EDT reply actions  

UD! Picking up where he left off in 06--keep it up big guy

Martin Landau as Bela Lugosi: "How dare that asshole bring up Karloff? You think it takes talent to do Frankenstein? It's all makeup and grunting."

"The women... The women prefer the traditional monsters."
--from the movie Ed Wood
GET TO THE RIM HEAT! ATTACK THE PAINT!

by mjtig on Jun 1, 2011 12:43 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

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